Towards causal forecasting of international migration

Long-Range Forecasting For International Markets: The Use of Causal Models

Many researchers appear to operate under the impression that causal models lead to more accurate forecasts than those provided by naive models (or “projections”). This study was based on the premise that causal models lead to better forecasts than do naive models in certain situations. The key element of these situations is that there are “large changes.” One situation where large changes might...

Towards a New Agenda for International Migration Research

Forecasting in International Relations

As a discipline matures, prediction becomes one of its standard and routine prac­ tices. The field of international relations is no exception. The growing attention to forecasting within academic research accompanies increasing expectations by the policy community that international relations research should be able to provide early warning of conflict and other human disasters and should there...

International Journal of Forecasting Special Issue on Energy Forecasting Introduction

FORECASTING OF TRAFFIC Recommendation E.506 FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC 1

1 Introduction This Recommendation is the first in a series of three Recommendations that cover international telecommunications forecasting. In the operation and administration of the international telephone network, proper and successful development depends to a large degree upon estimates for the future. Accordingly, for the planning of equipment and circuit provision and of telephone plant ...